Ninety-three percent of overflow systems assume that the neighbors will not have a fire at the same time. This is a number I found in a report. The report was thick. The report was on my desk. I read the report because my eyes were stinging.

I got shampoo in my eyes this morning. The shampoo was the peppermint kind. The soap was strong. My vision was blurry. I looked at the charts anyway. I looked at the lines on the charts. The lines were smooth. The lines looked safe. I knew the lines were a lie.

The Meeting of Averages

The procurement meeting started at 11:14 AM. The room was cold. The air conditioner made a humming sound. The manager was named John. John held a black pen. John pointed the pen at a chart on the wall.

The chart showed call volume. The volume was low on Tuesday. The volume was low on Wednesday. The volume went up on Friday. John liked the chart. John said the chart showed we had enough people. John said the overflow vendor would handle the rest. John put the pen down. John looked at Sarah.

Sarah was a colleague. Sarah did not like the chart. Sarah picked up a red marker. Sarah circled a date on the chart. The date was a Monday after a holiday. Sarah asked about the afternoon of that Monday. Sarah asked what happened if every client called the vendor at once. John did not have an answer. John looked at the pen. John looked at the wall. The wall was white. The room was quiet.

Lessons from the Floor

I worked in retail theft prevention for ten years. My name is Mia. I saw many thefts. The thefts happened in a specific way. A group of people would enter the store. The group had five people. One person would go to the counter. That person would ask the clerk for a size twelve shoe.

The shoe was always in the back room. The clerk would leave the floor. The clerk would walk to the back room. The clerk was the only person on the floor. The other four people would take the leather jackets. The people would walk out the door. The clerk was busy. The clerk was the capacity. The capacity was gone.

The store had an overflow plan. The plan was to call the manager from the office. The manager was also busy. The manager was on the phone with the bank. Everyone needed the same person at the same time. The store lost four thousand dollars in jackets that day. The jackets were black. The jackets were heavy.

I remember the smell of the leather. The leather smelled like a new car. The loss was not on the chart. The chart only showed the average day. The average day did not include the theft.

The Baltimore Connection

I thought about the Great Baltimore Fire of 1904. This is a fact from history. The fire started in a dry goods store. The fire grew large. The fire spread to the city center. The fire department needed help.

Fire engines came from Washington. Fire engines came from Philadelphia. Fire engines came from New York. The fire engines arrived at the fire. The firemen found the hydrants. The firemen tried to connect the hoses. The hose couplings did not fit. The couplings were different in every city.

The water was in the hydrants. The firemen were at the hydrants. The connection failed. The city burned for thirty hours. The fire destroyed fifteen hundred buildings. The fire did not care about the number of fire engines. The fire only cared about the connection.

The Math of Human Capacity

The overflow vendor is the fire engine. The vendor has agents. The agents sit in chairs. The chairs are in an office. The vendor tells the client that the agents are ready. The vendor tells ten clients the same thing. The vendor tells twenty clients the same thing.

This works on a Tuesday. This works on a Wednesday. This works when one client has a surge. The agents take the calls. The agents answer the questions. The agents are the water in the hose. But the same afternoon comes for everyone.

The power goes out in the north. The storm moves to the south. The holiday ends on a Sunday. The offices open on Monday morning. Four hundred clients have a surge at 2:00 PM. The vendor has three hundred agents. The math does not work.

“The agents are human. The humans have two ears and one mouth. The agents pick up the phone. The phone rings again. The agents feel the stress. The stress is real.”

– Mia, Retail Theft Prevention Expert

I saw this stress in the retail store. The clerk came back with the shoe. The clerk saw the empty racks. The clerk started to cry. The clerk was twenty years old. The clerk had a blue shirt. The shirt was wrinkled. I felt bad for the clerk. I did not blame the clerk. I blamed the plan. The plan assumed the floor would be empty. The plan was a fantasy.

Strategy Over Hope

In the meeting, John spoke again. John said the contract was signed. The contract was for two years. The contract had a price. The price was four thousand eight hundred dollars a month. John said the price was good. John said we saved money.

I thought about the jackets. I thought about the Baltimore fire. I thought about my eyes. My eyes still stung from the shampoo. I rubbed my eyes. The skin was red. I told John about the connection. I told John that outsourcing is a transfer of work. I told John that outsourcing is not the deletion of work.

The work still exists. The demand still exists. If the demand is simultaneous, the vendor is a bottleneck. The vendor is a hydrant with the wrong coupling. John did not like my story. John wanted to talk about the budget. The budget was a spreadsheet. The spreadsheet had green cells. Green meant good.

The Shared Illusion

I stopped believing the capacity chart when I saw the empty racks. I saw that the overflow was a shared illusion. We all pay for the same seat. We all hope we are the only one who needs it. We are not the only one.

There are six other companies in our building. There are six thousand companies in our city. We all have the same calendar. We all have the same clock. The clock ticks for everyone.

Sarah stood up. Sarah walked to the window. Sarah looked at the street. The street was busy. Cars were stuck in traffic. The traffic was a surge. The road was the capacity. The road was full. The cars were not moving.

Sarah said the traffic was like our calls. Sarah said the cars all wanted to go home at 5:00 PM. No one wanted to go home at 3:00 AM. The road is empty at 3:00 AM. The road is a waste of space at 3:00 AM. But we do not build roads for 3:00 AM. We build roads for 5:00 PM.

The Failure Map

John looked at the chart again. John saw the smooth line. The smooth line was the average. The average is a ghost. No one lives in the average. We live in the spikes. We live in the moments when the shampoo is in our eyes and the phone is ringing and the jackets are moving out the door. We live in the 11:14 AM meeting where no one has an answer.

I left the meeting. I went to the bathroom. I splashed cold water in my eyes. The water felt good. The stinging stopped. I looked in the mirror. My eyes were clear. I could see the truth. The truth was that we were unprotected.

I went back to my desk. I opened a new file. I did not call it a capacity chart. I called it a failure map. I mapped the moments when the vendor would fail. I mapped the holidays. I mapped the storms. I mapped the Mondays. The map was full of red dots.

The red dots were the danger. I showed the map to Sarah. Sarah nodded. Sarah understood. We need to talk about the industry-level uncertainty. We need to talk about the shared risk.

The Sinking Boat

If we all use the same overflow, we are all in the same boat. If the boat has one leak, we can fix it. If the boat has a hundred leaks, the boat sinks. The vendor is the boat. The clients are the passengers. We are all holding buckets. We are all trying to bail out the water.

The manager in the shoe store never bought more jackets. The manager just locked the door. Locking the door is a solution. It stops the theft. It also stops the sales. It is a failure of the business. A business should not lock the door. A business should have enough people.

I can see the lines on the chart. I see the smooth line and I see the lie. I see the red dots on my map. I prefer the red dots. The red dots are honest. The red dots tell me when to worry. I like to know when to worry. It is better than being surprised. It is better than looking at an empty rack where the jackets used to be.

The capacity vanishes when the capacity is required by everyone.

I told John we should hire more agents. John said it was too expensive. John said the budget did not allow it. I told John that the theft was more expensive. John did not listen. John liked his green cells.

I stayed in my office. I watched the clock. The clock moved to 2:00 PM. The phones started to ring. The phones did not stop. I heard the sound from the hallway. It was a loud sound. It was the sound of a surge.

It was the sound of the same afternoon. I sat in my chair. I did not pick up the phone. I am not the overflow. I am the witness.